Why experts are so often wrong

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? 
by Philip E. Tetlock. Princeton University Press, 2005

In a world filled with expert predictions that are mostly incorrect, and filled with people who eagerly seek such predictions even though they are incorrect, Tetlock's book explores why experts are so often wrong and why we listen to them anyway.  There is no more evidence-based subject matter than forecasting.  This book provides an excellent overview of the perils and pitfalls in making forecasts.  

Another great resource is J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, who has amazing, open-source (i.e., free) and proven forecasting techniques and insights on his website.

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Posted in Academic research, Commentary by Jeffrey Pfeffer | | Permalink | Comments (2)